A new UN boss

While Americans are preparing to elect the 45th President of the United States in November, another election campaign has started at the United Nations for the first time in the 70-year history of the organization. The race is on to select someone to succeed Ban Ki-moon, whose tenure ends on Jan. 1 next year. While US elections are the norm, even in this abnormal year, especially in the Republican camp, the way the voting for a UN secretary-general is being conducted this year is new, akin to a regular job interview. The nine candidates who have so far declared have had to pitch themselves to the General Assembly’s 193 nations. For three days, they were publicly grilled for two hours each over the global crises of the times, from the Middle East conflict to climate change. They were also asked to post their curricula vitae online and to compose a 2,000-word vision statement explaining how they would run an organization that has 193 member states, 30 separate agencies, funds and programs and 40,000 staff. This is a dramatic departure from what has normally been a process conducted behind closed doors, with the final say in the hands of the five permanent members of the Security Council. The council will still make the final decision, but thanks to the General Assembly which last year voted to change the mostly secretive process, the new openness could put at least some pressure on the big five to pick a nominee who has broad appeal. So although the hustings have been held in public, the next UN secretary-general will remain the candidate who emerges from backroom bargaining. The power still resides with the permanent five who can all veto candidates. The US, for instance, vetoed Boutros Boutros-Ghali when the Egyptian sought a second five-year term. So what is more important than the candidates’ CVs is whether at any stage of their careers they have displeased the permanent P5 members. Thus, a compromise candidate inevitably emerges, one who is not necessarily the most able but the least objectionable to the P5 countries. Just as the US 2016 campaign could end up with the election of the first female US president, there’s a strong possibility that the next head of the UN will be the organization’s first female secretary-general. Of those who have so far put their names forward, half are women. The next UN chief will also probably come from eastern Europe, the only region that has yet to be represented in the top post. Under an unwritten rule of regional rotation, this geographical bloc is next in line to fill the vacancy. Irina Bokova of Bulgaria, director general of UNESCO, appears to be the frontrunner. But this is where politics comes in. Bokova admitted the Palestinians into the organization, against the express wishes of the US, which retaliated by cutting off funding. She is also seen as Moscow’s preferred choice, which means the US is almost certain to block her. The maneuvering to succeed Ban is at present as respectable as the US dogfight is contentious. But it will now go into second gear. The race to be UN secretary-general will pick up steam in July when the Security Council begins the rounds of straw polls to measure support for the candidates. Final polling is expected to take place in September, when the 15-member council will submit one nominee to the General Assembly, which is expected to endorse the choice, essentially to rubber stamp. There have been calls to see the new secretary-general appointed to a single seven-year term, rather than the present practice of serving two five-year terms. That will not happen this time. Right now, though, the UN voting process is a far cry from the stealth procedure that selected Ban and all his predecessors.