Reality check required

THE Iraqi government does itself no favors by insisting on achievements that have not yet been made and by giving assurances that are quickly shown to be plain wrong. A week ago, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi triumphantly announced the liberation of Fallujah. The Iraqi flag had been raised in the city’s center over the battered civic administration building. But in fact, as quickly emerged, only a third of Fallujah had been taken. The terrorists of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) still occupied a large part of the northern suburbs.  When this awkward fact became apparent, Abadi announced that the remaining part of the city would be cleared “within hours”.  Many, many hours later, this has not happened either. Abadi seems either unaware or simply does not care about the damage that these empty boasts do to his personal reputation and to the standing of his government. Now it may very well be that he was working on reports from commanders in the front line. Indeed, senior officers continue to insist that 80 percent of the city is in their hands. But US surveillance and  reports from advisers on the ground strongly suggest that the battle is very far from over. As the Americans discovered in 2004 when they sought to oust insurgents from Fallujah, the fighting was hard and bitter. And the US troops were equipped with the very best weaponry and were highly-trained. Much of the Iraqi army, despite having American weaponry and vehicles lavished upon it, is of poor quality. The Shia militias who have joined in the battle have minimal training. Footage of them fighting shows them acting out some video game. A man dashes into the open with a tripod-mounted machine gun and fires off a belt of ammunition toward the terrorists. The recoil of the weapon makes it impossible to aim. This macho demonstration complete, the man runs back to the congratulations of his comrades. The chances of any terrorists being killed or injured is probably zilch. And social media rarely carry pictures of militiamen being shot dead in these futile acts of machismo, obviously because that is not part of the inspiring underlying text the militias wish to project. Daesh killers are altogether more disciplined. In both Fallujah and the Libyan town of Sirte where they have been cornered, they are causing considerable casualties through the use of IEDs, booby traps and snipers. The facts are stark. These terrorists are cornered. When they were triumphant, they gave no quarter to the soldiers they captured and civilians who resisted their odious rule. They can expect no mercy now.  Surrender is no option. They will fight to the death. What is happening now in Fallujah is almost certain to happen when the Iraqi army and militia turn their attention to Mosul.  The sad fact is that victory will only come through extremely hard combat and well-organized advances, fighting street by street.   Abadi and his generals only do themselves discredit by underestimating the challenges and overestimating what has been achieved. It is time that they had some reality checks. They need to restore the trust not just of ordinary Iraqis, disillusioned by ineffective government and cynical of official claims, but of the international community which wants to see the Daesh terrorism menace destroyed and Iraq’s communities reunite on a path toward peace and prosperity.