Erdogan must address Turkey’s divisions

TURKEY is in a state of shock. It is not simply the supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK party that took to the streets to face down the military coup. In both Istanbul and Ankara, opposition supporters were in the crowds, furious that the armed forces were once again back on the street and trying to take over. Turkey has changed a lot in the 26 years since the military last ousted the elected government. And in 1980, the generals’ takeover was actually welcomed across a  wide range of opinion, because the country had sunk into cycle of murderous street violence in which extremist gangs fought each other and law and order was on the brink of collapse. Not so this week’s failed military intervention. The perils Turkey faces today are largely external. Assailed by Daesh (the so-called IS) terrorists and with the renewal of the insurgency by the PKK, the country has also been forced to eat crow by the Russians after shooting down one of their warplanes. There has also been the remarkable volte face with Erdogan seeking to restore relations with the bloody Assad regime in Syria and the renewal of ties with Israel. One way or another, Erdogan is responsible for each of these developments. Having brokered an historic truce with the Kurdish terrorists, he seized the opportunity of a still-murky attack on Turkish gendarmes to renew the campaign against the PKK. Along with the Free Syrian Army,  Daesh had long been able to use Turkey as a transit for fighters and weapons. There is no way Turkish intelligence could not have known about this, but nothing was done to stop the flow, even when it became clear Daesh was a menace to the Free Syrian Army, not Assad’s blood-stained soldiers. Ankara was riding a tiger. When it finally blocked Daesh supply route and tried to wind up its local networks, the terrorists opened their ruthless terror campaign in Turkey, a major consequence of which has been the ruin of the lucrative tourist trade. It seems unlikely however that Erdogan’s olive branch to Basher Assad last week triggered the military revolt, which was clearly long in the planning. And Turkey’s military and intelligence services always valued their links with the Israelis. As the round-up of thousands of suspected plotters continues, Erdogan needs to reflect on what prompted military officers to take such radical and for them ultimately disastrous steps. There can be no excuse whatsoever for their treason. But in his moment of victory, the president should consider the faultlines in his country which the attempted coup has exposed. Some have argued that he ought to be magnanimous in his treatment of the plotters. Maybe, but maybe not, because at least 265 people were killed and 1,440 wounded in the insurrections. And Erdogan is arguably Turkey’s most popular-ever president. But his increasingly authoritarian, almost imperial style, has served to polarize the country. For almost as many who think him a hero, there are those who despise his governance. And abroad, he has bothered friends in the Arab world by his consistent support for the Muslim Brotherhood.  He has said that the failed coup has made him stronger. In the short-term he is undoubtedly right. But for longer-term, he has to come to terms with the reality that his country is deeply divided.