AT least a million Turks rallied on Sunday in Istanbul to condemn the failed coup. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had meant this to be a moment of national unity. His aides were claiming that in fact five million Turks attended but were lost to view in the side streets that they thronged. Ferry, bus and metro were made free for the day.
But this huge rally also served to put the country’s problems into relief. Leaders of two of the three main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the National Movement Party (MHP) were present on the podium but the third largest party, the People’s Democratic Party, (HDP) was not invited. The HDP draws much but not all of its support from the country’s Kurdish minority. Since Erdogan threw his once-accommodating policy toward the Kurds into reverse, he has sought to brand the party as backing the PKK terrorists, which the HDP and its charismatic leader Selahattin Demirtas roundly deny.
Therefore, despite the evident enthusiasm of the demonstrators who represented a broad range of the political spectrum, this was not really the unity event that Erdogan intended.
Moreover the coup has left considerable unease, not simply because of the threat it posed to Turkey’s democracy. More than 70,000 people have been arrested or fired from their jobs in the armed forces, police, law courts, universities and schools. No less disturbingly, the police have been arresting journalists on the grounds that they were fomenting revolt against the government. It is impossible to believe that tens of thousands of people were in the know about the coup. Indeed many of the soldiers who were stripped and beaten in a public humiliation after the revolt failed, were only following instructions from their commanders. In the highly disciplined Turkish army, anyone who disobeys an order does so at his peril.
Therefore, it is clear that Erdogan is using the coup as an excuse to clear out political opponents who he claims are followers of his exiled former ally Fetullah Gulen. In the current mood, anyone who questions his rule is branded a Gulenist.
The opposition politicians at Sunday’s immense rally probably realize the repression that is being meted out now could just as easily be turned on them. In the wake of the coup, many bitter critics of Erdogan, including the HDP, rallied behind the president out of loyalty, not to him personally, but to the democratic process. There was briefly a hope that Erdogan would appreciate the plurality of this support and row back his increasingly autocratic governance. Among those in the crowd this weekend, were surely a significant number who recognize now that Erdogan has used the coup to mount a countercoup which is securing his position and emasculating his political opponents.
Brussels is appalled at his crackdown. But Erdogan has clearly given up on ambitions to join the EU. He also may be giving up on Turkey’s NATO membership. He travels to St. Petersburg for talks with Vladimir Putin. The deal would seem clear. In return for the end of Russian sanctions and the return of Russian tourists, Erdogan will quietly back the Damascus regime of Bashar Assad and clamp down on cross-Turkey supply line for the Free Syrian Army. He may even stop US-led Coalition warplanes from using the Incirlik airbase to attack Daesh (the so-called IS).
