Turkey’s double-terror trouble

TURKEY is fighting a terror war on two fronts. The collapse of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s once much-praised peace deal with militant Kurds means that the country is facing not simply isolated PKK terror attacks in major cities but is once again embarked on a guerrilla war in the east. Then there is Daesh (the so-called IS) responsible for the latest outrage, the murder of guests at an Istanbul New Year’s Eve party. Daesh was once careful not to provoke Turkey because it needed to smuggle its recruits, weapons and equipment through the country and across the border into Syria. It managed this by pretending to be legitimate members of the Free Syrian Army, the rebels whom Ankara supported in their drive to overthrow the Assad dictatorship. But once the Turkish military went front and center in the fight against Daesh, the terrorists had no further need to tread softly. Turkish intelligence has rolled up some of the terror support networks on Turkish soil and Turkish troops are now in Syria blasting Daesh positions. But they are also engaged in a fight with Syrian Kurds, as an extension of their battle against the PKK. There seems little doubt that support for Erdogan has grown stronger, in the wake of both the failed coup and the rising number of terror attacks. Erdogan will this year seek to transform the presidency into a powerful executive office, able to bypass most parliamentary and judicial checks. This project was once viewed with deep unease, not just by the EU which Turkey has been seeking to join for over 30 years, but also by many Turks from all parts of the political spectrum. It is not simply the crack down after the coup attempt that has silenced those voices. Turks who are not natural supporters of the Erdogan’s moderate Islamist AK party have rallied round the presidency in the face of national danger. In this respect the PKK should already have known and the terrorists of Daesh should have worked out for themselves that the Turks can only be pushed so far. Once successfully provoked, their response is both tough and extremely stubborn. Analysts are now expressing the view that under pressure, Turkish determination to resist will only become stronger and the country’s unity enhanced. But this judgment perhaps needs one qualification. There was a time, in the late 1970s when Turkey almost buckled under violence. Internal terrorism saw both left and right wing Turkish groups fighting each other on the streets, with waves of assassinations and bombings. Though outside powers may have meddled to some extent, this was a homegrown conflict that came close to civil war. The celebrated Turkish resolve in the face of danger did not manifest itself as rival politicians squabbled and the security situation degenerated alarmingly. The horror as only ended by the intervention of the military in arguably their only acceptable coup in the history of the Republic. As in the past, the generals said that they were acting as guarantors and protectors of Kemal Ataturk’s political legacy. But Turkey has moved on in the last three decades. One of Erdogan’s most outstanding achievements has been the neutralizing of the military’s role in politics, first by crushing the still disputed 2007 Ergenekon conspiracy and then last year’s coup. It is, therefore, a very different Turkey that is now confronting the double dangers of Daesh and PKK terrorism.