Three powers, one new strategic equation

The joint defense agreement signed at Al-Safa Palace in Makkah on Friday by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan was by no means a spur-of-the-moment decision. It followed months of consultations and discussions that began well before the deterioration of the Middle East’s security landscape and the sharp escalation of regional threats.

Yet its emergence at this particular moment can be regarded as a masterstroke by seasoned regional and international political players accustomed to navigating complex geopolitical realities. It also represents a significant diplomatic success for Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, who has consistently sought to mitigate security risks and address sources of instability through strategic partnerships of this kind.

It is no coincidence that the Makkah Coalition came just days after the international maritime coalition formed by Riyadh with dozens of countries committed to regional security and stability — a cause with direct implications for international peace — at a time when risks have escalated sharply as a result of the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict.

The tripartite joint defense agreement carries additional significance because it was signed in Makkah, the holiest city for Muslims worldwide and a place of profound importance to all three signatories. Together, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan represent a population of at least 380 million people. Türkiye is a member of NATO. Pakistan is the only Muslim-majority country possessing nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is among the world’s most influential countries economically, politically and militarily.

The agreement expressly stipulates that it is defensive, not offensive, and is not directed against any specific country. Its most consequential provision is straightforward: Any attack against one of the three signatories will be considered an attack against all three. That principle has led some commentators to liken the pact to an “Islamic NATO.”

The provision reflects the strategic thinking of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Through the agreement, the three leaders have sent a clear message to states and militias threatening Saudi sovereignty and its vital oil infrastructure, on which the global economy depends: Saudi Arabia is not alone.

Its own armed forces, reinforced by the military capabilities of its two partners, mean the Kingdom will not stand idly by while Iran and its proxies seek to hold the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz hostage in defiance of the international community.

The Makkah Pact is reshaping the geopolitics of the region — and regional geopolitics have become increasingly inseparable from those of the wider world.

Since the fall of the Shah’s regime in 1979, Iran has exerted pressure across the region through its policy of “exporting the revolution” and the creation and support of proxy militias that have sought to undermine the independence and sovereignty of countries in which they operate, including Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq.

More troubling is the logic that if Iran is attacked by Israel and the United States, it can retaliate against Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia — by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and directing its proxies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Such thinking and actions cannot be tolerated. This is not because Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors lack the military capacity to respond, but because the consequences of disrupting these strategic waterways extend far beyond the region.

Any sustained disruption would threaten the interests and livelihoods of people around the world, potentially affecting supplies of fuel, food, agricultural fertilizers and medicine. Iran would therefore risk confronting not merely the regional countries it targets because of their longstanding ties with the United States, but the interests of the wider international community.

The Saudi-US relationship has endured for nearly a century and has never been directed against another nation. Attempts to use that relationship as a justification for threatening Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states therefore represent a dangerous distortion of the regional equation.

The Makkah agreement, moreover, is not exclusively military in nature. Its three signatories stand to reap substantial economic and strategic benefits from deeper cooperation, including increased investment and the further development of their defense manufacturing industries. Each country has already made significant advances in building its domestic military industrial capabilities.

The potential consequences therefore extend well beyond collective defense. Greater cooperation among Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad could create new opportunities for joint production, technology transfer, investment and the development of increasingly sophisticated defense industries.

Nor should the Makkah Coalition necessarily be regarded as a closed framework. It could eventually expand to include other countries, further contributing to the restructuring of the region’s security architecture and strengthening its capacity to confront future threats.

No country can be expected to endure attacks, threats and incitement indefinitely without strengthening its defenses and partnerships. Collective deterrence exists precisely to ensure that the cost of aggression is understood before aggression occurs.

That is ultimately the significance of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement. It brings together three influential countries, three significant military powers and three pivotal capitals around a simple principle: An attack against one will be treated as an attack against all.

The agreement was conceived long before the latest regional escalation, but its timing has given it even greater significance. In an increasingly uncertain Middle East, the message from Makkah is unmistakable: The strategic equation has changed.