Within a whisker of peace

Legislators in the Philippines are being urged by President Benigno Aquino to pass legislation that will seal a peace deal made with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front back in March 2014. At stake is a final end to an insurgency which has lasted for 45 years, seen at least 120,000 people killed, many more injured and more than two million people driven from their homes. Aquino’s six-year term ends next June and he is not allowed to stand again. Many see the peace agreement with the Muslim insurgents as one of the main achievements of his presidency. The chain-smoking Aquino may not go down in history as one of his country’s more proactive leaders, but it is widely agreed that it was his persistence and vision that drove the difficult negotiations. Thus the Bangsamoro Basic Law which is now before the Philippines Congress is a crucially important development. It will give greater autonomy to the Muslim population in the south of the country. This in turn will end an emergency which has sapped the state for almost 50 years, scared off foreign investment and brought untold suffering to all communities in the south. Unfortunately, there are still influential politicians, backed by some members of the security forces, who remain implacably opposed to the deal and do not want to see the Bangsamoro Basic Law enacted.  They point to the failure of past ceasefires and attempts at peace. They fear that greater autonomy will in time become a demand for independence which was the original platform for the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and other rebel groups.  Local Christians are also alarmed that they would suffer discrimination in Muslim controlled areas, a reflection perhaps of their knowledge of how their own community has traditionally discriminated against Muslims. The peace agreement, brokered by the Malaysians and indeed signed in Kuala Lumpur, is supposed to come into operation next year. The rebels would hand over their arms to a third party, the army would withdraw most of its troops, a regional police force would be established and private clan armies would be disarmed. Unfortunately, this February, in an incident about which much is still unclear, a police commando unit became involved in a serious firefight with Liberation Front forces in which 44 policemen were killed. This tragedy could not have been better designed to outrage moderate Filipino opinion and force the president onto a back foot. Those who all along have opposed the creation of a semi-autonomous Bangsamoro have since been urging members of Congress to throw out the bill. Time is now running out. There are now just days before Congress is prorogued and the country prepares for fresh elections next summer. If the bill is not passed now, the chances are that it is unlikely to be reintroduced by whoever wins the presidency in May. Aquino made a peace deal with the rebels a key campaign promise.  He is within an inch of delivering. It has to be almost certain that if the bill fails, so will the peace and Mindanao will once again be plunged into a conflict which, history has shown, neither side can win. There has never been a better chance to restore stability and prosperity to an important part of the country. Legislators must not throw this opportunity away.